Still play defensive

This week can be one of the most important in recent time, as you can see in the following image a lot of new data will come out:

And this is just Monday.

The most important to me is going to be the Markit Manufacturing PMI from Germany as well as the Manufacturing PMI from the US. If we will se another drop the situation can became dramatic pretty soon. In that case, I expect the CBs to step in and start another round of QE. As a matter of fact, the ECB is going to restart QE from November the 1st, I think the FED is going to do so within a year from now, maybe even six months.

In the meanwhile the playbook is pretty much the same. Still hold bonds and precious metals, even though for the latter I cut my exposure and took some nice profits. I’m focusing at the moment on Bitcoin which I think can be a really smart play is such an enivornment (I’m writing an article on it, stay tuned.)

For the US I think there is some pain in the long term as you can see here:

The economy is slowing down and the probability of a recession at the moment is still pretty high:

With that said, keep your money away from risky assets for now.

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