The past month only gold has been a great call, we had really nice profits from that trade. This month I think will be different. US Dollar: if we take a look to the US economy it seems to be still strong. The advocate for an immidiate recession are slowing in my opinion, even though … Continue reading Market forecast September 2019
I had this week the honour to attend the discovery week at Nova SBE in Lisbon Portugal, where I'll study for one year for my MSc in Finance. Despite this, I'll try to post at least one article per week and every month my recap/suggestions. US Dollar: the US dollar is still the most desired … Continue reading Market recap from August 2019
In the past days I analyzed business cycles, most of comments around the world say that "business cycles do not exist anymore due to CBs intervention". I believe this is not true. In fact, you can spot cycles by looking at the Global Manufacturing PMI. Here's the chart: You can see some kind of trends … Continue reading Cycles matter. And they affect your asset allocation.
As expected, Germany is in recession but they do not know yet. This morning the IFO business expectations reached 91.3, the lowest point since January 2017. Germany pays two main things: the type of economic system it build throughout the years as well as the dispute between China and US, the latter are slowing down … Continue reading Germany is in recession
After a while, it's time to add a new indicator to our model. In this case, we can use such indicator alternatively to the S&P500 price as % of 200 daily moving averages. This indicator is the the S&P500 closing price minus the 200 daily moving average. You could have use this indicator from 1950, … Continue reading Bulding a macro model togheter #5
The most important chart of the world at the moment. The EU Bank Index: It closed below 80 euros, the most important level zone. Short it. After a decade, the bearish triangle is complete. Let's party.
Today I'll post few charts which are going to tell you the whole story about the upcoming recession. From Pictet Asset Management we get the following info: 2. from Pictet we get the following as well: 3. Nordea tells us: 4. onto the next one: 5. PMIs tumbling: 6. Raoul is a great guy The … Continue reading The recession is here